One of the past two winners of the Champions League, Real Madrid or Manchester City, is going out of the competition Wednesday before the round of 16. Defending champion Madrid takes a 3-2 lead into the second leg at home in their knockout playoff which Man City coach Pep Guardiola suggested left his team with just a 1% chance to advance.

Even after their impressive win over Newcastle United, Manchester City stand on the precipice. Domestically their best case scenario is surely little more than Champions League qualification and an FA Cup win.