There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

There’s strong and growing evidence that the “next” US recession has begun - or will begin soon. Historically, the longer and deeper has been the initial inversion, the longer and deeper has been the ...

Following the jobs report on Friday that showed job creation had deteriorated from “decent” to “weak,” yields dropped across the board, except for the 30-year yield, which ticked up. Yields are now ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...

An inverted yield curve, in which yields on longer-dated bonds are below those for shorter-dated instruments, has correctly predicted the last nine U.S. recessions in the post-World War II era.

After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

In macroeconomics, the yield curve is used to forecast the probability of a recession. When the curve becomes inverted, it means that short-term yields are higher than long-term yields which, up until ...

For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming. So you’d think that investors and ...

Nearly two-thirds of strategists polled by Reuters say an inverted yield curve has diminished as a reliable recession indicator. The yield curve has been inverted for 20 months without a recession ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

The inverted yield curve means that a recession is still likely, the indicator's inventor wrote this week. However, excessive labor demand, a stronger housing market, are factors that will dampen the ...