SportsLine's advanced model has simulated every game 10,000 times and locked in its NFL playoff best bets today

Per Pro Football Reference, home playoff underdogs of four or more points are 10-0 vs. the spread over the last 50 years. The Patriots aren’t playing against history, obviously, but I do think the Broncos’ defense can keep it close. And Stidham will be rusty, obviously, but he can’t be worse than C.J. Stroud was last week.

The Rams will be playing their third road playoff game in 16 days. They have traveled from L.A. to Charlotte to L.A. to Chicago to L.A. and, finally, up the West Coast to Seattle. The Seahawks have been home that whole time and have played just one game,